Focus Reports
SPECIAL
Analysis of energy conservation and emission reduction to limit industrial production
Time：2020-01-21 12:01:08
The LME metals index rose 0.88% this week. Aluminum fell 1.78% to $2377, copper rose 1.08% to $8400, zinc rose 5.81% to $2423, lead rose 6.73% to $2425, nickel fell 1.48% to $24040, and tin rose 1.42% to $26725. Stocks of copper, aluminum, lead and zinc in the exchange continued to decline, while nickel and tin rose slightly. In September, there were 368000 tons of non cast copper and copper imports, a year-on-year decrease of 8% and a month on month decrease of 3%; 65800 tons of non cast aluminum and aluminum imports, a year-on-year decrease of 66% and a month on month decrease of 9%. We think that the decline in imports is mainly due to the recent increase in overseas metal prices significantly greater than domestic prices. In September, the export of unfrozen aluminum was 55000 tons, up 65% year on year and down 6% month on month.
Based on the fact that global re inflation expectations are difficult to fundamentally ease within one year, we maintain a medium - and long-term optimistic judgment on gold prices. Possible risks in the short term: if US economic data is better than expected, resulting in us further quantitative easing lower than expected (we think it is more likely), it may trigger technical adjustment of gold price, but it will not change the upward trend in the medium and long term. Small metals rose and fell in half. Manganese in the Yangtze River rose 4.93% this week, antimony in the Yangtze River rose 1.44%, molybdenum concentrate in China rose 1.02%, tungsten concentrate in China rose 0.55%, and LME cobalt rose 0.26%. On the other hand, international titanium fell 3.6%, LME molybdenum fell 2.99%, indium in China fell 1.69%, Changjiang cobalt fell 0.70%, and Changjiang magnesium fell 0.27%.
The international gold price has made great progress. The international spot gold price rose 1.61% to $1368.4 and reached a new high of $1388. SPDR gold ETF position increased by 1.06%. In other precious metals, international spot Silver Rose 4.60% to $24.3225, platinum fell 0.63% to $1695.25, and palladium rose 0.43% to $589.75. The main reasons for the rise are still: the United States and Japan have restarted stimulus policies in succession internationally; domestic industrial production is limited due to energy conservation and emission reduction; the domestic economy is recovering from the bottom, unable to tighten activity again while maintaining the coherence of real estate policies.
The basic metal trend slowed down. This week, the US dollar index continued to fall 0.37% to 77.041, while the overall trend of metals is still upward, but the trend is weaker due to the impact of China's sector's rising reserve ratio. Among them, aluminum fluctuated at a high level, copper rose slowly, while lead and zinc continued to rise sharply. We think that after a continuous rise, the metal market is facing some technical adjustment pressure, but the upward logic of the trend is still maintained. We judge that the overall trend is difficult to reverse before the United States does launch quantitative easing.
Based on the fact that global re inflation expectations are difficult to fundamentally ease within one year, we maintain a medium - and long-term optimistic judgment on gold prices. Possible risks in the short term: if US economic data is better than expected, resulting in us further quantitative easing lower than expected (we think it is more likely), it may trigger technical adjustment of gold price, but it will not change the upward trend in the medium and long term. Small metals rose and fell in half. Manganese in the Yangtze River rose 4.93% this week, antimony in the Yangtze River rose 1.44%, molybdenum concentrate in China rose 1.02%, tungsten concentrate in China rose 0.55%, and LME cobalt rose 0.26%. On the other hand, international titanium fell 3.6%, LME molybdenum fell 2.99%, indium in China fell 1.69%, Changjiang cobalt fell 0.70%, and Changjiang magnesium fell 0.27%.
The international gold price has made great progress. The international spot gold price rose 1.61% to $1368.4 and reached a new high of $1388. SPDR gold ETF position increased by 1.06%. In other precious metals, international spot Silver Rose 4.60% to $24.3225, platinum fell 0.63% to $1695.25, and palladium rose 0.43% to $589.75. The main reasons for the rise are still: the United States and Japan have restarted stimulus policies in succession internationally; domestic industrial production is limited due to energy conservation and emission reduction; the domestic economy is recovering from the bottom, unable to tighten activity again while maintaining the coherence of real estate policies.
The basic metal trend slowed down. This week, the US dollar index continued to fall 0.37% to 77.041, while the overall trend of metals is still upward, but the trend is weaker due to the impact of China's sector's rising reserve ratio. Among them, aluminum fluctuated at a high level, copper rose slowly, while lead and zinc continued to rise sharply. We think that after a continuous rise, the metal market is facing some technical adjustment pressure, but the upward logic of the trend is still maintained. We judge that the overall trend is difficult to reverse before the United States does launch quantitative easing.
